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She said her "demand-driven" approach fitted the euro zone, whose 20 countries vary in economic strength and have separate banking systems. "A demand-driven system is well-suited for a heterogeneous currency union that may be prone to fragmentation," Schnabel said in an interview. "Such a system also likely limits the size of the central bank balance sheet." She conceded, however, that "it could make sense to have a mix of different tools", suggesting policymakers may be looking for a compromise in this complex yet crucial debate for the euro zone financial system. Loans to banks or a structural bond portfolio would come on top of this.
Persons: Isabel Schnabel, Ralph Orlowski, Schnabel, Philip Lane, Schnabel's counterargument, Francesco Canepa, Catherine Evans Organizations: Frankfurt, Banking Congress, Old Opera, REUTERS, European Central Bank, ECB, Reuters, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, FRANKFURT
Euro zone inflation tumbled to 2.4% last month from above 10% a year earlier after a record string of rate hikes. Schnabel, who had insisted just a month ago that rate hikes must remain an option because the "last mile" of the inflation fight may be the toughest, said she had shifted stance after three unexpectedly benign inflation readings in a row. "The most recent inflation number has made a further rate increase rather unlikely." "The recent inflation print has given me more confidence that we will be able to come back to 2% no later than 2025." Schnabel said weak growth as a result of the ECB's rate hikes is helping the inflation fight but that a deep or prolonged recession is unlikely, with recent survey data supporting expectations for a recovery.
Persons: Isabel Schnabel, Jim Urquhart, Schnabel, John Maynard Keynes, Christine Lagarde, Francois Villeroy de, Yannis Stournaras, Joachim Nagel, Balazs Koranyi, Catherine Evans Organizations: European Central Bank, Teton, Jackson, REUTERS, Rights, ECB, Reuters, Bank of Greece, Thomson Locations: Jackson , Wyoming, U.S, French, Francois Villeroy de Galhau
Joachim Nagel, President of Germany's federal reserve Bundesbank addresses the media during the bank's annual news conference in Frankfurt, Germany March 1, 2023. REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNICOSIA, Dec 3 (Reuters) - Euro zone inflation will carry on declining in the months ahead but at a slower pace, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel was quoted as telling Cypriot newspaper Kathimerini on Sunday. "We have not yet won the fight against inflation," said Nagel, who visited Cyprus last week. "Add in a scenario where an escalation of geopolitical tensions could imply higher inflation and it becomes clear that it would be way too early to declare victory over high inflation rates," said Nagel, an influential voice on the ECB's rate setting Governing Council. "All in all, I expect inflation to carry on declining, but at a slower pace and with possible bumps along the way," Nagel said.
Persons: Joachim Nagel, Kai Pfaffenbach, Nagel, " Nagel, Michele Kambas, David Goodman Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Cypriot, Central Bank, ECB, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Rights NICOSIA, Cyprus
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAllianz economist explains why ECB cuts will not come until late 2024Ludovic Subran, chief economist at Allianz, shares his projections on the outlook for the European economy and the ECB's monetary policy path.
Persons: Ludovic Subran Organizations: Allianz
A street sign for Wall Street is seen in the financial district in New York, U.S., November 8, 2021. Markets are now fully pricing a rate cut by the May meeting with almost a 50% chance they move in March, according to the CME's FedWatch tool. Reuters GraphicsThe 10-year yield is down around 15 basis points and on Thursday hit its lowest level in 2-1/2 months at 4.247%. On Wednesday, the dollar index , which measures the currency against six major peers, touched its lowest level since Aug. 11 and dropped over 3% last month, its worst month in a year. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Samuel Indyk, Jerome Powell's, Powell, Christopher Waller, Europe's, Fed's, Fed's Cook, ECB's, Fitch, Toby Chopra Organizations: Wall, REUTERS, Federal, Fed, Spelman College, Reuters, COVID, P Global, PMI, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, France, Greece, Ireland, DBRS, Germany, Spain
"It is hard to understand how the ECB ended up buying the bonds of property companies, while at the same time warning of the risks of property price inflation," former ECB chief economist Otmar Issing told Reuters. But data this week shows the central bank still owned the two bonds issued by SBB as of Nov. 24. While Sweden is not in the euro zone, SBB issued the debt bought by the ECB in neighbouring Finland, which is. Alongside the SBB bonds, the ECB also hoovered up the debt of other property companies which have since hit problems, including Sweden's Heimstaden. The ECB also gobbled up many German real estate bonds, including 39 issued by Vonovia, which has been selling property to cut debt.
Persons: Otmar Issing, Daniel Gros, Gros, Sweden's, Heimstaden, it's, Alexander Smith Organizations: SBB, European Central Bank, ECB, Reuters, Research, Institute, European, Bocconi University, Fitch, Vonovia, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT, Europe, Germany, Sweden, Milan, Swedish, Finland
For much of this year central banks have successfully pushed back against rate cut bets. "I believe the Fed will act rationally and begin to cut rates by the end of next year, but we can't rule out the scenario that the Fed is not going to cut rates and just let the ramifications of recession do what they do." Reuters GraphicsSHIFT NEARINGMarkets now fully price in a 25 basis point U.S. rate cut in May, having seen a 65% chance earlier this week. "There are now committee members in all three (banks) willing to talk about rate cuts next year," said Chris Jeffery, head of rates and inflation strategy at LGIM. "The ECB should begin to ease policy as soon as April 2024, with risks that a more sinister downturn in growth could warrant a rate cut as soon as March," he said.
Persons: Jonathan Ernst, ramping, It's, Nate Thooft, Goldman, Christopher Waller, Huw Pill, Yannis Stournaras, Chris Jeffery, we'd, Dario Perkins, Simon Harvey, Yoruk, Naomi Rovnick, Harry Roberston, Davide Barbuscia, Ira Iosebasvili, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Dhara Ranasinghe, Catherine Evans Organizations: . Federal, REUTERS, ECB, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Manulife Investment Management, Treasury, Graphics, Bank of England, Deutsche, Lombard, Traders, Yoruk Bahceli, Thomson Locations: Washington, United States, Europe, Goldman Sachs, Greek, Amsterdam, London
Euro zone inflation tumble pits ECB against markets
  + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Balazs Koranyi | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Inflation has dropped quickly towards the ECB's 2% target from levels above 10% just a year ago but policymakers have cautioned against excessive optimism. The rapid inflation slowdown puts the euro zone central bank and investors on a collision course as the two appear to see greatly different paths ahead, both for consumer prices and ECB interest rates. "And if the recent trends in inflation and growth continue then 2024 will be the year when the ECB implements a pirouette in monetary policy." "The market is therefore right to start looking at rate cuts for 2024. Some economists argue that modelling current inflation is exceptionally difficult because corporate profits are the main driver, not wages as in normal bouts of rapid inflation.
Persons: Sarah Meyssonnier, Kamil Kovar, Yannis Stournaras, Fabio Panetta, Panetta, Christine Lagarde's, Bert Colijn, Balazs Koranyi, Catherine Evans Organizations: REUTERS, ECB, Moody's, Bank of Italy, ING, Thomson Locations: Paris, France, FRANKFURT
A New Zealand dollar coin sits atop a United States one dollar bill in this photo illustration taken on March 11, 2016. Consumer price growth in the 20 nations that share the euro currency dropped to 2.4% in November from 2.9% in October, well below expectations for a fall to 2.7%. The euro dropped as much as 0.5% against the dollar to $1.0910. The Japanese currency has firmed almost 3% against the dollar in November and is on course for its strongest month this year. Sterling was last at $1.2646, down 0.39% on the day, while the Australian dollar fell 0.1% to $0.6610.
Persons: David Gray, Matthew Landon, disinflation, Landon, ECB policymaker Fabio Panetta, Mohamad Al, Jerome Powell, Christopher Waller, Christopher Wong, Toyoaki Nakamura, Sterling, It's, Samuel Indyk, Ankur Banerjee, Vidya Ranganathan, Kim Coghill, Miral Fahmy, Susan Fenton Organizations: New Zealand, REUTERS, European Central Bank, Morgan Private Bank, ECB, ECB policymaker, Danske Bank, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: States, Europe, U.S, London, Singapore
Morning Bid: November bids adieu with inflation data, OPEC
  + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 26, 2023. With signs of turn emerging in Federal Reserve policy guidance and October PCE inflation readings set to encourage that later in the day, rate cut fever was in full flow across the Atlantic too. Headline annual inflation in the bloc fell as low as 2.4% - within arm's length of the ECB's 2% target. Later on Thursday, U.S. PCE inflation for the prior month is pencilled to fall 3.0% from 3.4% - with a core also ebbing to 3.5%. "Monetary policy is in a good place," Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said on Wednesday, echoing comments from previously hawkish Fed governor Christopher Waller the previous day.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, policymaker Fabio Panetta, Loretta Mester, Christopher Waller, John Williams, Christine Lagarde, Megan Greene, Kroger, Bernadette Baum Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Federal, European Central Bank, Bank of Italy, policymaker, U.S ., ECB, Cleveland Fed, Wall, OPEC, Dallas Fed, PMI, York Federal, Bank of England, Academy Sports, Rock Biotech, Titan, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China, Canada, Vienna, Automotive, Duluth, BOS, Jan
European Union (EU) flags fly in front of the headquarters of the European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, July 8, 2020. REUTERS/Ralph Orlowski/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsFRANKFURT, Nov 28 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank may need to take on a bigger role in supervising shadow banks as they are now bigger than conventional lenders and may be sitting on elevated risk, the outgoing head of the ECB's supervision arm told European newspapers. "These are different animals to banks, so we shouldn’t expect to supervise them in the same way as we supervise banks." Taking on oversight of shadow banks would require legislative changes, a time consuming process even under the best of circumstances, and requiring broad political agreement. But some have argued that such a change could ease liquidity stress, particularly if shadow banks gained access to the ECB lending operations.
Persons: Ralph Orlowski, Andrea Enria, Expansión, Enria, Balazs Koranyi, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: Union, European Central Bank, REUTERS, Rights, prudential, ECB, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany
The dollar index , which measures the currency against six major peers, slipped 0.1% to 103.37 and was headed for a monthly loss of more than 3%, its worst performance since November 2022. The market is also eyeing a rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Chinese purchasing managers' index (PMI) data. In other currencies, the euro was little changed against the dollar at $1.0937 . Against the yen, the dollar fell 0.4% to 148.885 yen . The dollar extended losses after data showed U.S. new home sales fell more than expected in October, dropping 5.6% to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 679,000 units.
Persons: ECB's Lagarde, Helen, Christine Lagarde's, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Samuel Indyk, Rae Wee, Toby Chopra, Mark Potter, Paul Simao Organizations: U.S, Federal Reserve, Monex USA, Fed, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Reserve Bank of New, Australian, greenback, New, Thomson Locations: U.S, Washington, OPEC, Australia, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, New Zealand, China, New York, London, Singapore
While the euro zone has pledged to do "whatever it takes" and jointly issued debt for the first time during the pandemic, its debt load remains eye-watering. Scope assigns Italy a "stable" outlook, but "risks remain", Shen said, "given the weak growth and fiscal outlook". Reuters GraphicsNEXT CRISISThe ECB uses the best rating available from its approved agencies to determine a bond's collateral value when commercial banks borrow from it. Last week's Dutch election win by the far-right Geert Wilders could also have rating implications, Shen said. "Governance risks are a challenge in the longer run for one of the world’s remaining AAA-rated sovereigns...But the rating is not imminently at risk."
Persons: Yorgos, Moody's, Dennis Shen, Fitch, DBRS Morningstar, Shen, DBRS, bode, Geert Wilders, Marc Jones, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: REUTERS, Companies, AAA, European Central Bank, Reuters, Reuters Graphics NEXT, ECB, Thomson Locations: Athens, Italy, France, Berlin, U.S, Greece, Spain, Portugal, Cyprus, Rome, Canada, Dutch
Take Five: Warming up this winter
  + stars: | 2023-11-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
1\BUCK UP, IT'S DECEMBERThe dollar is heading for its weakest monthly performance for a year, with a loss so far of 2.7%. On Thursday, China releases official manufacturing PMI data, which last month showed an unexpected contraction, killing momentum for an economic recovery. COP28 gets underway in Dubai and securing an agreement on how to tackle global warming and, crucially, how to pay for it looks as difficult as ever for the near 200 countries and institutions attending. Reuters Graphics5\THE ECB'S BALANCING ACTEuro zone inflation data on Nov. 30 may well confirm a trend of price rises moderating. Policymakers remain wary of any hopes for rate cuts spilling over into increased bank lending and household spending, renewing inflationary pressures.
Persons: Lewis Krauskopf, Kevin Buckland, Naomi Rovnick, Marc Jones, Amanda Cooper, it's, Joshua Roberts, Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, Christine Lagarde, Pasit Kongkunakornkul, Sumanta Sen, Kripa Jayaram, Vineet Sachdev, Prinz, Toby Chopra Organizations: BUCK, IT'S, Federal Reserve, Reuters, REUTERS, COP28, World Bank, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: China, Dubai, Lewis, New York, Tokyo, London, Washington , U.S, UAE
European Central Bank policymaker and Governor of the Austrian National Bank Robert Holzmann addresses the media in Vienna, Austria, March 23, 2023. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsVIENNA, Nov 24 (Reuters) - European Central Bank policymakers should discuss at their meeting next month whether to wind down bond reinvestments under the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme early, Austrian Governor Robert Holzmann said in remarks published on Friday. "My suggestion would be to reduce reinvestments step by step as of March," Holzmann told Austrian newspaper Die Presse. Those reinvestments are slated to run until the end of 2024 but some policymakers have made the case for starting to wind them down early. Reporting by Francois Murphy; editing by Christina FincherOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Austrian National Bank Robert Holzmann, Leonhard Foeger, Robert Holzmann, Holzmann, Francois Murphy, Christina Fincher Organizations: European Central Bank policymaker, Austrian National Bank, REUTERS, Rights, Central Bank, Austrian, Die Presse, Thomson Locations: Vienna, Austria, Austrian
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEU inflation will fall faster-than-expected, says Pantheon's Claus VistesenClaus Vistesen, chief eurozone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the implications of the election in the Netherlands, the ECB's rate hike outlook, and more.
Persons: Pantheon's Claus Vistesen Claus Vistesen Organizations: Pantheon Locations: Netherlands
Morning Bid: Watching what the ECB giveth
  + stars: | 2023-11-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Vidya Ranganathan. The forward-looking flash November PMIs due out globally should help investors assess recession risks and how quickly rate cuts will begin. Interest rate futures show the market is pricing in rate cuts by April and more aggressively so in June . Later on Thursday, Sweden's central bank will announce its latest policy decision in what is expected to be a very close call on whether to hike again. A Reuters poll showed 10 of 19 economists looked for a rise, while market pricing is leaning against a move.
Persons: Vidya Ranganathan, haven't, Mario Centeno, Joachim Nagel's, Christine Lagarde's, Jeremy Hunt's, Van Haaren, ECB's Isabel Schnabel, Robert Holzmann, Francois Villeroy de, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Vidya, European Central, PMI, ECB, Reuters, Ubezpieczen SA, Virgin Money, Bank of France, Thomson Locations: Japan, United States, Britain, U.S, Sweden's
Tom Turkey float rides during the 97th Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade in Manhattan, New York City, U.S., November 23, 2023. With Wall Street shut for Thanksgiving on Thursday, Asian investors will miss the usual swing factor. Instead, Friday's release of Japan's core inflation data for October will set the tone for trading in the region. Japan's core consumer inflation likely accelerated again in October, staying above the central bank's 2% price target for a 19th straight month, according to a Reuters poll. But some of the inflation-easing trade is already priced into the market, reflected in the near 11% rally in the MSCI world index (.WORLD) in the past 18 trading days.
Persons: Tom Turkey, Brendan McDermid, Denny Thomas, Josie Kao Organizations: REUTERS, Rights TORONTO, Bank of, Beijing, European Central Bank, Stocks, Malaysia CPI, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Manhattan , New York City, U.S, Japan, China, Europe, Singapore, New Zealand, Thailand, Taiwan
Euro zone's shadow banks face risk of margin calls, ECB says
  + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
FRANKFURT, Nov 22 (Reuters) - Euro zone shadow banks face the risk of receiving large margin calls or client redemptions they cannot meet because they do not have enough cash on hand, the European Central Bank (ECB) said on Wednesday. The ECB said liquidity buffers among shadow banks - an umbrella term for funds, insurers and other non-bank financial intermediaries (NBFI) - were "very low", exposing them to the risk of running out cash at times of market stress. Insurance companies and pension funds (ICPF) that use derivatives could be exposed to the risk of "large margin calls", the ECB added, citing those suffered by their UK peers last year as a precedent. "Any sharp increase in sovereign bond yields or a spike in financial market volatility could expose those ICPFs which use interest rate derivatives to large margin calls," the ECB said. The central bank reiterated its call for introducing regulation for shadow banks like the one that governs traditional lenders, including liquidity requirements and stress tests.
Persons: Francesco Canepa, Mark Potter Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, Insurance, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT
Morning Bid: Nvidia shares take bumpy ride after hours
  + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
The logo of NVIDIA as seen at its corporate headquarters in Santa Clara, California, in May of 2022. Courtesy NVIDIA/Handout via REUTERS/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsA look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. The early focus was on Nvidia (NVDA.O), which in AI tech terms is the only company selling shovels during a gold rush. Volumes were so large and orders so backlogged that the price was - unusually - still moving erratically hours into the Asian day. A Reuters poll showed 10 of 19 economists looked for a rise, while market pricing is leaning against a move.
Persons: Wayne Cole, Changpeng Zhao, Zhao, didn't, Hunt, ECB's Centeno, Elderson, Mester, Macklem, Edmund Klamann Organizations: NVIDIA, Handout, REUTERS, Nvidia, Treasury, Fed Bank of Cleveland, Bank of Canada, Thomson Locations: Santa Clara , California, Wayne, China, Sweden's
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde looks on as she attends the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs, at the European Parliament, in Brussels, Belgium September 25, 2023. Yves Herman | ReutersEuropean Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Friday said that Europe is now at a critical juncture, with deglobalization, demographics and decarbonization looming on the horizon. "There are increasing signs that the global economy is fragmenting into competing blocs," she said at the European Banking Congress, according to a transcript. "As our societies age, we will need to deploy new technologies so that we can produce greater output with fewer workers. And as our climate warms, we will need to advance the green transition without any further delays."
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Yves Herman, Lagarde Organizations: European Central Bank, European Parliament's, Economic, Monetary Affairs, Reuters, Central Bank, European Banking Congress Locations: Brussels, Belgium, Europe
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'No common capital market a big problem for the euro zone,' strategist saysMathieu Savary, chief European strategist at BCA Research, dissects the speech of ECB's Christine Lagarde during the annual European Banking Congress.
Persons: Mathieu Savary, ECB's Christine Lagarde Organizations: BCA Research, European Banking Congress Locations: European
Morning Bid: Consumers in focus as Walmart reports
  + stars: | 2023-11-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Vidya Ranganathan. Thursday's corporate calendar features a host of earnings reports that will shine further light on the health of the global consumer, as U.S. retailers Walmart (WMT.N), Bath & Body Works and Macy's (M.N) report earnings. Expectations for Walmart ride high after peer Target (TGT.N) surged by almost a fifth on Wednesday in the wake of its consensus-beating holiday sales forecast and upbeat view of its supply chain. Figures on Wednesday showed U.S. producer prices fell at their fastest pace since April 2020, and UK consumer inflation undershot all forecasts. Reuters GraphicsMeanwhile in Asia, Japan's exports are struggling due to slumping China-bound shipments of chips and steel.
Persons: Vidya Ranganathan, Eddie Wu, Christine Lagarde, Jerome Powell, What's, Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, England's Randall Kroszner, ECB's Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos, Fed's Loretta Mester, John Williams, Michael Barr, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: Vidya, Walmart, Body, Insider Intelligence, U.S, Bank, Events, Applied Materials, Siemens, SQM, Thomson Locations: U.S, Asia, China, San Francisco, Bath, France
He warned the EU's framework placed banks' activity as a 'crypto-asset service provider' -- such as acting as a custodian for customer wallets, exchanging tokens or managing crypto portfolios -- outside of the ECB's purview as a banking supervisor. "In fact, if crypto-asset service providers controlled by banks are not within the scope of their prudential consolidation, the BCBS standard and especially the exposure limit may become ineffective." He added crypto asset service providers should be added "as a matter of urgency" to the list of financial institutions that the ECB supervises under EU rules. MiCAR entered into force at the end of June and will take full effect by the end of next year. The Basel Committee's global standards on exposures to crypto assets are due to be transposed into EU law by Jan. 1, 2025.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Andrea Enria, Enria, MiCAR, Jan, Claudia Buch, Francesco Canepa, Susan Fenton Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Central Bank's, Banking, ECB, prudential, EU, Thomson Locations: EU, Venice, Basel
Deep structural problems mean Europe is bound to trail most other big economic areas for years to come. The labour market remains tight and the world economy is rebounding, so external demand is also likely to be healthier. Fearing it will be difficult to hire in future, firms are now hanging onto workers, creating even more labour market tightness, potentially fuelling wage growth and weakening productivity. The potential growth rate for Europe's largest economy is now below 1%. European Union governments are meanwhile struggling to reach consensus on bigger questions that will help shape the future.
Persons: Philip Lane, Erik Nielsen, Eric Gaillard, Europe's, There's, Lane, Reinhard Cluse, Mark John, Catherine Evans Organizations: Central Bank's, REUTERS, European Commission, UBS, European Union, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT, Europe, Nice, France, United States, Germany
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